Q3 2019 U.S. DIESEL VEHICLE SALES COMMENTARY AND INSIGHT BY BAUM & ASSOCIATES

The Ford Transit, Mercedes Sprinter, and Ford F-150 lead the diesel category, and again represented 80 percent of total sales in September. Year-to-date, the Ford F-150 shows the most growth. However, sales from the Chevrolet Silverado 1500, GMC Sierra 1500, and Ram 1500 are all hitting the market and volumes will continue to increase this fall. Note that the EcoDiesel on the Ram 1500 is available on both the carryover and new versions of this popular vehicle. The former is being offered as a low-cost version and while there is a premium for the diesel engine, its availability on the Ram “Classic” makes the vehicle quite affordable. Ford and GM are taking a different approach, limiting their diesel engines to higher-trim versions packaged with other high-end (albeit very popular) content. Diesel sales in the fourth quarter are poised for strong growth, given the availability of the engines on each of the Detroit Three half-ton pickups. GM has begun to offer diesels in the Chevy Express and GMC Savana, but sales numbers are not yet available.

Commercial diesel models are in Class 2 and 3 vehicles (volumes are estimated) and were down in September, although they are flat year-to-date. Since a large portion of these vehicles are offered with diesel engines, their volumes follow the sales of the underlying vehicles. Ford’s volumes are flat with last year, while Ram is up significantly and GM down.

Q3 2019 U.S. DIESEL CAR SALES BY BRAND AND MODEL

2018 U.S. DIESEL VEHICLE SALES COMMENTARY AND INSIGHT BY BAUM & ASSOCIATES

The light-duty diesel segment is paced by three entrants: the Mercedes Sprinter, Ford Transit, and Ford F-150. The F-150 is of course new for 2018 and launched last Spring. Sales represent approximately 5 percent of total F-150 sales. Note that sales of the F-150 diesel are now included and have been added for the entire year. In Spring 2019, diesel sales will increase significantly as the Silverado and Sierra half-ton pickups and the Ram 1500 will all offer diesel entrants. There is a large drop off after the three category leaders, with GM and the European-based manufacturers completing the category. Sales of these light-duty diesels represent approximately 0.8 percent of total sales, which is up modestly from 2017.

Commercial diesel sales are sold on the ¾ and 1 ton versions of the Ram, F-Series Super Duty, and Silverado/Sierra. Sales increased in 2018 and total sales represent 2.2 percent of sales, but of course a much larger share of large pickups, where these engines are common. It should be noted that GM has seen strong growth in this category as their new product in the medium-duty segment is enabling increased sales in Class 2 and 3 as many corporate customers buy trucks of various classes (as a package) for their business needs. Ford’s market-leading position in this segment of course translates into its leading position in diesel sales.

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2018 U.S. DIESEL CAR SALES BY BRAND AND MODEL