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October 26, 2021   |   Diesel Technology Forum

Policy Insider

All Signs Point Up: Analysts See Robust and Growing Demand for Future Diesel Products in On and Off-Road Applications in 2022

Todays advanced diesel engines offer customers more fuel efficiency, more productivity and lower operating costs compared to previous generations of technology. Here’s a look at three sectors and insights on their current and future markets by leading analysts.


“Best ever demand, capacity constraints.” “Strong sales to continue… only question is whether industry can meet the demand.”  “Reasons for optimism…” These are a few of the headlines among leading industry analysts in a recent Forecast 2022 section of Diesel Progress.

Like other industry sectors, diesel engine and equipment makers are working through supply chain issues for parts and key components like computer chips, but overall demand for new advanced diesel engines, vehicles and equipment is strong in all sectors and forecast to continue to grow. Todays advanced diesel engines offer customers more fuel efficiency, more productivity and lower operating costs compared to previous generations of technology. Here’s a look at three sectors and insights on their current and future markets by leading analysts.

Power Generation: Demand for generators continues, particularly in the residential segments. Diesel dominates the larger range of generators (51 to over 1,001 kw) for commercial applications. Overall production of diesel gen sets grew in every category (2021 vs 2020); in the 51 – 300 kW size diesel dominates all fuel types with a 12.3 percent increase in production to over 41,000 units for 2021 over 2020. Positive influencers in this segment include low financing rates, outlook for boosted investments from the new infrastructure legislation in Congress, growing concern about weather events and reliability of the electrical grid. (Data source: Power Systems Research)

Medium and Heavy-Duty Trucks: The medium and heavy-duty truck industry is limited only by supply chain issues. Diesel is the predominant technology for the heaviest commercial trucks – Class 7 and 8 – powering over 94 percent of vehicles. According to ACT Research, demand for Class 8 vehicles today is the best in history. Forecasts are for full year 2021 at 288,000 units and next year at 359,000 units. Demand for commercial vehicles is a function of freight demand, driver and equipment availability, all three of which were impacted by the pandemic. Freight demand has skyrocketed but drivers are in short supply. While expectations are for GDP at 6.2 percent in 2021 and 2022, freight growth is projected at 12.6 and 5.8 percent respectively. (Data source ACT Research)

Off-Road Construction and Farm Equipment: Machines and equipment that plant and harvest crops, move earth to build homes and infrastructure, and handle materials have been critical during the pandemic. Most of these machines and equipment are powered by diesel and are all expecting growth in 2021 with sales of earthmoving equipment projected to be up 20 percent, material handling equipment up 30 percent and agricultural equipment up 10 percent. Tremendous investment in compact construction equipment in 2020 drove sales up 10 percent, sustaining the equipment sector that saw drop offs in other larger machine categories. In the ag sector, sales of tractors under 40 hp was higher in 2020 and is expected to level out in 2021. Future drivers include the overall state of the economy, federal spending and the potential for investment from the infrastructure bill now in Congress. (Data source: yengstassociates.com)

Truck Construction Power Generation Tractor



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Allen Schaeffer
Executive Director
aschaeffer@dieselforum.org
301-668-7230

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